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Volume: 08
Research & Reviews: Journal of Medical & Health Sciences
Page 18
Notes:
Diabetes Congress & Cancer summit 2019
December 04-05, 2019
conferenceseries
.com
December 04-05, 2019 | Tokyo, Japan
Asia Pacific Conference on
Diabetes Oncology
Angelique Dukunde et al., RRJMHS 2019, ISSN: 2319-9865
Prediction of Prevalence of type 2 Diabetes in Rwanda using the Metropolis-Hasting Sampling
Angelique Dukunde
1
, Jean Marie Ntaganda
2
, Juma Haj. Kasozi
3
and Joseph Nzabanita
2
1,2
University of Rwanda, Rwanda
3
Makerere University, Uganda
T
he most common known Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic
respiratory diseases. World Health Organization had reported that 63% of total deaths, were due to NCDs, where diabetes
count 3.5% and (2%) in 2008 and 2010 respectively. Non-communicable diseases account for 36 percent of deaths in Rwanda,
of which diabetes accounts 2%, in 2013. Researchers have worked on this problem using several approaches but in Rwanda the
models to predict the future dynamics of diabetes do not exist yet. In this work, we predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes
among adult people. Metropolis-Hasting method was used to calculate the metropolis ratio. Data reported by World Health
Organization in 2015 was used. Considering Su ering from diabetes, Overweight, Obesity, Dead and other subject as states of
mathematical model, the transition matrix whose elements are probabilities is generated using Metropolis-Hasting sampling.
e numerical results show that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increases from 2.8% in 2015, 12.65% in 2020 to 22.59% in
2025. erefore, this indicates the urgent need of prevention by Rwandan health decision makers who have to play their crucial
role in encouraging physical activity, regular checkups and sensitization of the masses.
angeliquedukunde@gmail.com